We have come a long way in the past century. Despite many conflicts and the use gruesome technologies of mass destruction, the world is now more integrated than ever. The cold war was won by the west, defusing the main source of potential international conflict. Anyway, Globalization has caused economies to become more integrated, making world wars all but impossible.
Or is it really so?
During the pre- 1914 belle époque, the world was arguably even more economically integrated than today, with international trade as a percentage of gdp at all time highs in many nations. Given the horrors of WWI, and the resolution that the world had experienced the "war to end all wars" leading to the establishment of the league of nations to guarantee international security few would have thought that WWII was a mere two decades away.
There is a consensus among economic historians that WWII was to some extent caused by widespread poverty in the wake of the great depression, with national populations seeking strong men to solve their problems. It is also given that economic nationalism and protectionist policies exacerbated the global economic slowdown.
Today we are again confronted with economic difficulties of epic proportions. Again, politicians are seeking to solve their domestic issues by proponing measures designed to foster local economic growth over the most efficient method of production, leading to lower efficiency and increased costs. Again, these measures are sowing the seeds of international conflict. Although the magnitude as to what extent protectionist policies contributed to the great depression remains a topic of debate, the symbolic importance should not be neglected.
After all, we can learn certain things from the twentieth century. One of these lessons is that trade wars can lead to real wars.
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